GDP Grew 5.7% In 4th Quarter Of 2009

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The White House puts this in context:

The data show that the total output of the U.S. economy increased strongly in the fourth quarter of 2009.  Real GDP (that is, GDP adjusted for inflation) increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent.  The change from the first quarter of 2009, when GDP fell at an annual rate of 6.4 percent, is truly extraordinary; indeed, the three-quarter swing in growth rates was the largest since 1981.

[…]

[Click for larger]

This is, undeniably, good news for the country and the American people.

But this is particularly good news for President Obama and Congressional Democrats, since it shows that their economic policies are working.  We’ll still have to wait and see how employment fares–since employment is a lagging indicator–but this much GDP growth is a good sign.

On the other hand, this is particularly bad news for Republicans, since they’re relying on continued economic stagnation to help them in the upcoming midterm elections. If Obama and the Democrats turn out to have been right and the economy continues to improve, then I don’t see what the Republicans are going to run on.

Dissatisfaction will only take you so far–if people stop being dissatisfied then Republicans are going to have to come up with actual policies to run on.

[All emphasis mine]

James O’Keefe Arrest Update

We have an update this morning on the arrest of conservative activist James O’Keefe–apparently O’Keefe & co. weren’t trying to wiretap Sen. Landrieu’s phones.  the Times-Picayune is reporting that they’re being charged with ‘entering federal property under false pretenses with the intent of committing a felony.’

Still, a crime is a crime and a felony is a felony.  But I expect that the right will complain about the allegations of wiretapping in order to draw attention away from the fact that O’Keefe and his friends quite possibly broke a number of federal laws.

The question is, though, if they weren’t trying to wiretap the Senator’s phones what exactly were they doing?

MSNBC’s First Read brings us this:

A law enforcement official says the four men arrested for attempting to tamper with the phones in the New Orleans office of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) were not trying to intercept or wiretap the calls.

Instead, the official says, the men, led by conservative videomaker James O’Keefe, wanted to see how her local office staff would respond if the phones were inoperative. They were apparently motivated, the official says, by criticism that when Sen. Landrieu became a big player in the health care debate, people in Louisiana were having a hard time getting through on the phones to register their views.

That is, the official says, what led the four men to pull this stunt — to see how the local staffers would react if the phones went out. Would the staff just laugh it off, or would they express great concern that local folks couldn’t get through?

[All emphasis mine]

So, James O’Keefe & co. quite possibly violated a number of federal laws so they could…break Sen. Landrieu’s phones to see what would happen.

Well, I certainly hope it was worth it…

And this is the guy who’s supposed to be the future of conservative journalism? Are you kidding?

UPDATE: And now some on the right are trying to brush this off as a prank.

Uh, no. ‘Entering federal property under false pretenses with the intent of committing a felony‘ is not a prank–felonies aren’t pranks.

And you know that if a group of progressives had done the same thing to a Republican Senator no conservative would accept ‘it was a prank’ as a defense.

The right’s golden boy caught quite possibly breaking federal laws (and for a pretty stupid reason to boot). Maybe they should stop trying to spin this away and just own up to the fact that James O’Keefe isn’t exactly the sterling anti-corruption crusader they made him out to be.

State Of The Union Liveblog (UPDATED CONTINUOUSLY)

Let’s get it started–the President has entered the chamber.

UPDATE: The speech begins:

President Obama starts off talking about America’s trials and tribulations–Bull Run, the Great Depression, Bloody Sunday, etc. But, despite our hesitations and fears, America prevailed because we moved forward as one nation, one people.

One year ago, I took office amid two wars, an economic collapse and a country in severe debt. Experts warned that, without action, we faced a second Great Depression. We acted–one year later, the worst has passed.

But the devastation remains–many Americans can’t find work, houses are shuttered, and life has become that much harder. The recession has compounded the burdens America’s families have dealt with for decades–savings, retirements, college, etc.

UPDATE II: These struggles aren’t new–they are the reason I ran for President. For suffering Americans, change can’t come fast enough. And people can’t understand why bad behavior on Wall St. is rewarded while good behavior on Main St. warrants nothing.

People are tired of the partisanship and of the shouting and division–what the American people deserve is for all of us, Democrats and Republicans, to work through our differences and overcome the weight of our politics. The anxieties we all face are the same, our aspirations are shared.

The American people share a resilience in the face of adversity. In one of the most difficult years in our history, the American people remain busy.  One woman wrote to me ‘we are strained but hopeful, struggling but encouraged.’ It is because of this spirit that I have never been more hopeful about America’s future than I am tonight.

[Applause]

Read More

BREAKING: Undercover ACORN Filmmaker Arrested (UPDATED X3)

Remember James O’Keefe, the conservative activist who filmed those dubious undercover videos at various ACORN offices?

Well, he was just arrested by the FBI, apparently in an attempt to bug the offices of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA):

James O’Keefe, the conservative filmmaker who was behind the undercover operations that lead to the ACORN scandal last year, has been arrested with three others for allegedly trying to bug the New Orleans office of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), the Times-Picayune is reporting.

[…]

FBI Special Agent Steven Rayes alleges that O’Keefe aided and abetted two others, Joseph Basel and Robert Flanagan, who dressed up as employees of a telephone company and attempted to interfere with the office’s telephone system.

[Emphasis mine]

So, apparently James O’Keefe is so concerned about government corruption that he had his friends dress up like telephone company employees and tried to illegally wiretap a United States Senator.

Remember, O’Keefe’s ACORN investigation broke a number of anti-wiretapping laws, so it looks like this publicity stunt is simply an extension of his lawbreaking MO.

The right touted James O’Keefe as a conservative anti-corruption crusader, but he’s looking more and more like a common criminal.

(Or maybe like a reality TV star, willing to go to any length for the limelight. O’Keefe should team up with Balloon boy’s dad–that is, whenever they’re both out of jail).

UPDATE: Andrew Breitbart, who was instrumental in publicizing O’Keefe’s dubious ACORN videos, had this to say:

I need to find information on this. I’m out of the loop on this. I will make my determination then on when to comment.

TPM’s headline for that piece was ‘More Liddy Than Woodward & Bernstein?’

Yeah, that’s what we on the left have been saying for a while now–and it’s about time O’Keefe’s underhanded tactics caught up with him.

UPDATE II: Read the FBI affidavit here.

UPDATE III: There might be more here than meets the eye–Jonathan Turley reports that one of the people arrested with O’Keefe, Robert Flanagan, is the son of William J. Flanagan, who is the Acting United States Attorney for the Western District of Louisiana.

It’s kind of  a big deal when the son of a US Attorney is arrested trying to wiretap the office of a United States Senator.

The Freeze

Last night, the Obama administration announced that they’re going to freeze non-security discretionary spending between 2011 and 2013:

On a conference call last night, the administration announced that its upcoming budget would freeze non-security discretionary spending between 2011 and 2013. That’s like freezing non-defense discretionary spending, but it also exempts the Department of Homeland Security and the Veteran’s Administration from the cuts. Education, Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency, and pretty much everything else that’s not Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security can be knifed.

The devil is in the details here–I can’t really form a strong opinion on the freeze until I know which programs are going to end up under the knife.

My biggest concern is that, if the government can’t spend then they can’t create jobs. Unless December was an aberration and January is a banner month for job growth, we’re going to need to pass a jobs bill in order to bring down unemployment.

Thus, with the freeze in place we run the risk of a double-dip recession–if we need to spend money to keep the economy growing, but can’t because of the freeze, the recession is going to worsen again. If that happens, Obama will be blamed and he will deserve it.

From a political perspective, I can’t really see what the administration gains from this. Conservatives aren’t going to rally around Obama because of this–in fact, they’re already mocking him.

Independents may care about getting the deficit under control, but they probably care more about jobs and unemployment. So, if the freeze causes the recession to worsen again, Obama will end up bleeding even more support.

This strikes me as a gimmicky gamble with a high risk of failure. And, as Brad DeLong points out, Obama didn’t even get anything in exchange for the freeze:

As another deficit-hawk points out: it would be one thing to offer a short-term discretionary spending freeze (or long-run entitlement caps) in return for fifteen Republican senators signing on to revenue enhancement triggers. It’s quite another to negotiate against yourself and in addition attack employment in the short term.

[All emphasis mine]

BREAKING: Biden Out

Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, has announced that he will not run for his father’s former Senate seat this year.

Despite being a statewide officeholder with a famous name, the younger Biden did not poll well against presumptive GOP candidate Mike Castle–Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight rated Delaware as the 6th Senate seat most likely to change hands in November. It’s quite possible that the appearance of nepotism was dragging the younger Biden’s numbers down.

But Delaware is also a small state, and there isn’t a very deep bench of potential Democratic candidates.

So, Biden’s announcement could be similar to Dodd’s retirement–where Democrats are better off without a big name in the race–or it could be like Dorgan’s retirement–where the Democrats’ one and only chance is walking away.

We won’t know for sure until both sides pick their candidates and we see some good, reputable polls.

BREAKING: Berry Out

Congressman Marion Berry (D-AR) will announce today that he will not seek re-election in the fall.

Chris Cillizza lists some of the potential candidates:

The field to replace Berry isn’t yet set although Democrats mentioned include state Rep. Keith Ingram, Berry chief of staff Chad Causey and Jason Willett, a former state party chair. State Attorney General Dustin McDaniel (D) is regarded as a rising star in the state and would be a favorite if he ran. On the Republican side, broadcaster Rick Crawford is in the race although the field is likely to expand with the Berry announcement.

And before anyone tries to dig up the “Democrats are dropping like flies” meme, keep in mind that Berry is the 12th House Democrat to retire this cycle–meanwhile, 14 House Republicans have declined to seek re-election.

BREAKING: SCOTUS Overturns Restrictions On Corporate Campaign Spending (UPDATED)

Some ominous news from Washington this morning:

The Supreme Court has ruled that corporations may spend freely to support or oppose candidates for president and Congress, easing decades-old limits on their participation in federal campaigns.

The court on Thursday overturned a 20-year-old ruling that said corporations can be prohibited from using money from their general treasuries to pay for campaign ads. The decision almost certainly will also allow labor unions to participate more freely in campaigns and threatens similar limits imposed by 24 states.

The justices also struck down part of the landmark McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill that barred union- and corporate-paid issue ads in the closing days of election campaigns.

That’s funny–I seem to remember the preamble of the Constitution beginning with “We the People of the United States,” not “We the Corporations of the United States”

I don’t understand the concept of corporate personhood–why should corporations allowed to advertise on behalf of candidates? For that matter, why are they allowed to set up PACs? They’re not allowed to vote, so why should they be able to spend tens of millions of dollars (often on misinformation) to tell the rest of us how to vote?

If the people who work for a corporation feel strongly enough about an issue or candidate, they can certainly spend their own money and campaign on their own time.  But money is a massively corrupting influence in politics; letting corporations dump huge amounts of money into our political system is only going to make things worse.

This is why we need publicly funded elections–to prevent “We the People” from becoming “We the Corporations and Special Interests”

(And I like how they throw labor unions in there, as if labor unions will ever come close to being able to rival the profits of all of corporate America).

UPDATE: I had an idea of how to turn this ruling into a win-win situation:

Whenever a corporation spends money on the behalf of a politician, that politician should have to sew a patch bearing that corporation’s logo onto all of their suits, NASCAR-style.

On the one hand, that would provide corporate donors with free advertising–since their logo appears wherever a candidate goes–ensuring that those donors get their money’s worth.

And it also provides voters with insight into which corporations have bought which politicians–this way, we’ll know why the Governor with the ConAgra patch loves ethanol, why the Congressman with the ExxonMobil patch wants to ‘drill baby drill’ and why the Senator with the Blackwater/Xe patch doesn’t think we should leave Iraq anytime soon.

This. (UPDATED)

I had some difficulty putting my thoughts on the MA-SEN race in order–that is, until I went to Sadly, No! and found this:

Look, I think the “lesson” of yesterday’s election and voter discontent is pretty clear: Democrats badly underestimated how awful this recession was going to get and when they shifted their focus to health care reform they blithely assumed that the steps they had already taken, from the stimulus to HAMP to Geithner’s brilliant-still-to-be-revealed secret plan for fixing the banks, would start bringing unemployment down and would make for a more favorable political climate this year.

[…]

It’s damn simple — the economy sucks and the measures that the administration have taken have provided very little effective, immediate relief to the average person. So when the health care debate went into a Baucus-induced wankfest over the summer, the Democrats lost a lot of time when they could have been working harder on job creation. If somebody is really suffering, the first thing they want is help. They’ll become concerned about how to pay for it only after they’ve been rescued.

Or, as a famous Louisianan once quipped, “It’s the economy, stupid!”

The Democrats thought they had done enough to fix the economy, so they switched over to health care reform–unfortunately, the economy continued to stagnate.

I know that politics doesn’t happen in a vacuum and that our problems started long before January 20, 2009–but nobody cares about that, people only care that there is no relief in sight.

And, in spending so much time–the better part of  a year now–on health care reform, Democrats are giving off the perception that they’re fiddling while Rome burns. They’re letting the economy stagnate while they focus on other things–good things, important things, but things that are not going to fix the economy.

At this point I don’t know what to do with health care reform. My advice to the Democrats would be to just pass whatever you can right now and worry about fixing it later. We’re not going to get a unicorn–or a horse, or a pony, or even an ugly mule–at this point, so we should just get the most we can (like banning discrimination based on pre-existing conditions and granting subsidies to the middle class) and move on. Health care reform has already eaten up far too much time and effort.

As Nobel laureate Paul Krugman wrote:

David Axelrod is right: the campaign against HCR has been based on lies, and the only way to refute those lies (and stop them from being rolled out again and again) is to pass the thing, and let people see it in action. It’s too bad startup is delayed under the Senate bill — but even so, that’s what you have to do.

The Democrats need to shift away from health care reform–their priority for the forseeable future should be the economy.  If I were them, my top three goals would be:

  1. Pass a jobs bill.
  2. Recoup the TARP money.
  3. Pass regulatory reform, reigning in Wall Street and preventing the next collapse.

It’s going to be nearly impossible to govern this country now that the Republicans can filibuster everything. Democrats are going to have a tough time this year, and they’re probably going to lose some seats in November. But they can staunch the bleeding–and maybe eventually turn things around–if they make the economy their #1 priority.

UPDATE: Also, while Scott Brown may be the GOP’s golden boy of the moment, keep in mind that he’s up for re-election come 2012. In Massachusetts.

So, unless Brown is content being a partial-term Senator, I highly doubt he’s going to remain a right-wing darling for long.

In fact, Brown could end up being the Dems go-to guy when it comes to peeling off GOP votes in order to beat a filibuster.

If I were in the Senate Democratic leadership, I would go out of my way in order to get to know the junior Senator from Massachusetts and to help him feel right at home in Washington.

MA-SEN: Everything Hangs In The Balance

The last best hope

Today, everything hangs in the balance.

If Martha Coakley loses today’s special election in Massachusetts, the entire Democratic reform agenda will be jeopardized.

Health care reform–which will provide care to 31 million uninsured Americans, help the middle class buy health insurance with subsidies, and lower the deficit–will not happen.

President Obama’s plan to recoup TARP money–taxpayer money, our money–from the big Wall Street banks will not happen.

Financial regulatory reform–designed to prevent the next major economic collapse–will not happen.

A jobs bill–which will put millions of unemployed Americans back to work–will not happen.

The repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t tell’ will not happen.

These and other important reforms will. not. happen.

It’s hard enough for Democrats to govern as it is, with the constant threat of Republican filibusters hanging over Congress like the sword of Damocles.

If the GOP wins today, governing this country will become downright impossible.

The right-wing obstructionists will rule the day; the United States Congress will be paralyzed.  Nothing will get done, nothing will get fixed; our country will remain severely damaged and in need of repair.

Progress is slow. I understand at, and I understand the frustration with the Democrats–I understand that people want everything fixed, now, today. But progress takes time–there’s still a lot of work left to be done.

Giving the Republicans power again will only move us bbck toward the right-wing mismanagement which put us here in the first place.  If someone runs your car into a ditch you don’t give them the keys again–you turn to someone else to get you out. It’s common sense.

Politics didn’t start on January 20, 2009–we all remember exactly how we got here. You want America to get out of the ditch we were driven into? Then don’t give the keys back to the folks who put us here in the first place. Keep the Democrats in power. Vote for Martha Coakley.

If you live in Massachusetts get out and vote today. And if you know someone who lives in MA, tell them to go out and vote, too. We can’t afford to take anything for granted.

Because everything hangs in the balance.

[You can find your polling place here]

BREAKING: Snyder Out

Arkansas Congressman Vic Snyder (D) just announced he will not be seeking reelection this year:

Rep. Vic Snyder (D-Ark.) announced tonight that he will be retiring at the end of his term, citing the difficult political environment that he would have faced to win an eighth term in the House.

“2010 will be a robust election year during which great forces collide to set the direction for our country for another two years,” Snyder said in a statement.

“I have concluded that these election-year forces are no match for the persuasive and powerful attraction of our three one-year old boys under the leadership of their three-year old brother, and I have decided not to run for re-election.”

He was one of the most vulnerable House Democrats up for re-election, with a SurveyUSA poll released today showing him trailing his Republican challenger Tim Griffin by 17 points.

[Emphasis mine]

For those of you keeping track, Snyder is the 11th House Democrat to announce his retirement this cycle.

To compare, 15 House Republicans have announced their retirements thus far.

MA-SEN: Scott Brown Thinks Banks Deserve Your Money (UPDATED)

Hey, remember this?:

As resurgent Wall Street banks prepare to hand out billions of dollars in bonuses — their first since returning federal bailout funds — the payments are drawing intense scrutiny from regulators and politicians.

[…]

Just a year after receiving billions of dollars in taxpayer assistance, banks are expected to pay bonuses for 2009 that will rank among the largest in Wall Street history.

So Wall Street banks are paying their executives–the same executives who allowed the financial collapse to happen–huge bonuses with, essentially, taxpayer dollars.

And you know what? GOP Senate candidate Scott Brown is fine with that. He thinks those banks should be allowed to keep your money:

With the race for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat nearing a nail-biting conclusion, Democrats claim they gained a major boost Thursday night after Republican Scott Brown said he opposes a proposed tax on big banks that is designed to regain TARP funds and curb compensation practices.

[…]

A strategist working on the race emailed the Huffington Post with the following synopsis:

This is significant marker… this is Brown giving up the populist ground that was fueling his campaign. It also undermines his central argument that he’s not a lockstep Republican who will put Wall Street ahead of middle class families.

Surprise surprise–a Republican thinks big banks are entitled to hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars so they can pay their executives massive bonuses.

Meanwhile, Brown’s opponent, Attorney General Martha Coakley, supports President Obama’s plan to recoup TARP funds from major Wall Street banks.

Coakley’s campaign just released this statement:

This is a defining difference between us that every voter should consider before Tuesday. I choose to stand with the middle class taxpayers who deserve to get their money back from the big banks that caused the economic crisis and are now lavishing bonuses on failed executives. Scott Brown is standing with Wall Street CEOs.

As Attorney General, I’ve stood up to Wall Street and recovered millions of dollars back for taxpayers. If you elect me as Senator, I’ll continue to fight for you.

[All emphasis mine]

UPDATE: Surprise again: Michael Steele agrees!

Scott Brown and Michael Steele, birds of a feather. Is that who you want representing you, Massachusetts?

BREAKING: Shadegg Out

Right-wing darling and GOP leadership also-ran John Shadegg (AZ) just announced that he is retiring from the House of Representatives.

Rep. Shadegg ran for Majority Leader and Minority Whip back in 2006; despite being the favored candidate of the far right, Shadegg lost both elections.

He previously tried to retire during the 2008 election cycle but the Republican leadership talked him out of it, leading to a somewhat-embarrassing flip-flop.

Rep. Shadegg becomes the 15th House Republican to retire this cycle.

MA-SEN: Problematic Polling & Right-Wing Delusions (UPDATED)

In the Massachusetts Senate special election, a new Research 2000 poll shows Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) beating state Senator Scott Brown (R) by 8 points.

Let’s recap the recent polling on this race:

A poll by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman has Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) beating State Sen. Scott Brown (R) by 14 points.

A poll by Republican pollster Scott Rasmussen has Coakley beating Brown by 9 points.

A Boston Globe poll has Coakley beating Brown by 15 points.

And a Public Policy Polling survey has Brown leading Coakley by one point.

And another, more recent Rasmussen poll has Coakley leading Brown by 2 points.

But PPP has a spotty record when it comes to special election polling–their final NY-23 poll was 19 points off from the election results (more on that here).

And in regards to that Rasmussen poll, it’s awfully convenient how, right when Republicans were using that PPP poll as proof their candidate was gaining, Rasmussen put out their own poll–contrary to nearly every other survey out there–showing exactly that.

Especially when you consider that producing polls that reflect the right-wing conventional wisdom (though not always reality) seems to be Scott Rasmussen’s MO.

To recap, we have 4 polls showing Coakley comfortably ahead and 2 (problematic) polls showing her within the margin of error.

And yet, the right has decided this is proof that their candidate is going to win on Tuesday.

You know, just like how Doug Hoffman was going to win in NY-23. And how John McCain was going to win in 2008. And how the Republicans weren’t going to lose Congress in 2006.

Then again, the fact that much of the conservative movement is entirely out of touch with reality isn’t exactly news.

UPDATE:

Read More

Major Earthquake Strikes Haitian Capital; Thousands Feared Dead (UPDATED X7)

The BBC reports:

Haitian President Rene Preval has said thousands of people are feared dead following a huge quake which has devastated the country’s capital.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon said the head of the UN mission in Haiti and his deputy were among more than 100 staff missing.

The 7.0-magnitude quake, Haiti’s worst in two centuries, struck south of Port-au-Prince, on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive told US network CNN he believed more than 100,000 people had died.

The Red Cross says up to three million people are affected.

Donate to The Red Cross.

Donate to Doctors Without Borders.

Find other organizations currently providing humanitarian aid in Haiti.

UPDATE: Here are some pictures of the disaster from Daniel Morel via Twitpic:

UPDATE II: Here are more pics, this time from Lisandro Suero via Twitpic:

UPDATE III: Here is President Obama’s response to the disaster:

UPDATE IV: CBS brings us some raw footage of the earthquake’s aftermath:

CNN also has a list of organizations currently doing humanitarian aid in Haiti.

UPDATE V: Here’s a quick and easy way you can help out:

The State Department said those interested in helping immediately may text ‘HAITI’ to ‘90999’ and a donation of $10 will be made automatically to the Red Cross for relief efforts. The donation will be charged to your cellphone bill.

UPDATE VI: The UN Dispatch has more on Haiti’s coming challenges:

Once you’ve survived the earthquake, what happens? Haitians now face a daunting set of health challenges, including typhoid, dengue fever, malaria, and getting treatment for serious injuries.

While health information coming out of Haiti is still very sparse, data from previous earthquakes gives us a clear impression of what to expect in terms of health. The initial impact of an earthquake is catastrophic injuries – broken bones, crush injuries, dust inhalation, and burns predominate.

[…]

Social unrest often comes after earthquakes. People get angry with the government’s inability to respond, and fear and helplessness turns easily to violence. There are reports of looting in Haiti. That’s going to mean more injuries by violence.

After the injuries comes sickness. If stringent controls are not put in place, the combination of displaced people and damaged infrastructure will lead directly to epidemics of diarrheal disease over the next few months. In the case of Haiti, the risk is typhoid. It’s already present in the country, and it could spread rapidly if people are crowded together drinking contaminated water. We could also see spikes in dengue fever and malaria if people are living in temporary shelters with little protection from mosquitoes.

This is where disaster relief efforts make a huge difference. By the time the international teams get in, it’s too late to help the severely injured.

UPDATE VII: CBS brings us more raw footage, this time of a rescue attempt from a toppled building:

[All emphasis mine]

BREAKING: CO-GOV: Hickenlooper In

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) announced today that he will run for Governor:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, will run for governor of Colorado, Democratic and Republican officials told The Associated Press Tuesday.

The officials disclosed Hickenlooper’s plans on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to pre-empt his announcement, expected later Tuesday at the state capitol.

Facing a tough re-election challenge, Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter abruptly announced last week that he would not seek another term. Hickenlooper made it known that he was considering a run, and he was encouraged by President Barack Obama to do so.

The likely Republican candidate is former Congressman Scott McInnis.

While preliminary polling (from Rasmussen, so take it with a large grain of salt) shows McInnis with a slight lead over Hickenlooper, it’s far smaller than the lead he would have had over incumbent Governor Bill Ritter had Ritter decided to run for re-election.

ND-SEN: Hoeven In

North Dakota Governor John Hoeven (R) announced yesterday that he will run for the Senate seat being vacated by Byron Dorgan.

Unfortunately, that means the GOP is likely to win this seat–Gov. Hoeven is incredibly popular and, before Dorgan dropped out, polling showed Hoeven beating him handily (and keep in mind that Byron Dorgan is no slouch–he’s held statewide office in North Dakota since 1969).

If it was going to be hard for Democrats to keep this seat with Dorgan in office, it’s going to be nearly impossible without him.

I won’t write this race off entirely until we have a Democratic candidate and I see some reliable polling–perhaps someone like Rep. Earl Pomeroy could stand toe-to-toe with Hoeven–but I won’t believe it until I see it.

Americans Confident In Obama’s Handling Of Terrorism

Despite all the right wing’s predictable histrionics over the foiled Christmas plane bombing, President Obama continues to poll strongly on terrorism and national security:

As you know, a man has been charged with attempting to use an explosive device on Christmas Day to blow up a plane that was flying to Detroit. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama has responded to that incident?

Approve 57%
Disapprove 39%
No opinion 4%

[…]

How much confidence do you have in the Obama administration to protect U.S. citizens from future acts of terrorism — a great deal, a moderate amount, not much or none at all?

A great deal 24%
A moderate amount 41%

Not much 19%
None at all 16%

[Emphasis mine]

So, once again conservatives are completely out of touch with reality.

Man, I’m bursting all sorts of crazy right-wing bubbles today.

MA-SEN: Coakley Coasting, Conseravtives Crying

Next Tuesday, Massachusetts will hold a special election to select a successor to the late Ted Kennedy.

A poll by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman has Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) beating State Sen. Scott Brown (R) by 14 points.

A poll by Republican pollster Scott Rasmussen has Coakley beating Brown by 9 points.

A Boston Globe poll has Coakley beating Brown by 15 points.

And a Public Policy Polling survey has Brown leading Coakley by one point.

Now guess which poll conservatives arbitrarily decided was the accurate one. I guess that’s right-wing logic for you–if three polls show one result and one shows a completely contradictory result, go with the outlier.

PPP isn’t a bad pollster but they’re sometimes off by a lot, particularly in special elections–remember that their final poll for the NY-23 special election had Doug Hoffman beating Bill Owens by 17 points.

As we all know, Owens ended up winning that race by 2 points.

The Massachusetts contest is a special election, so it’s both volatile and hard to predict.  But I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to predict that Coakley will probably win, and probably not by a very thin margin.

Then again, we all know how out-of-touch Republicans are. In fact, even if Coakley wins I bet the right will still try to spin that loss as some kind of victory for them.

BREAKING: Sarah Palin, Fox News Contributor

America’s favorite quitbull with lipstick has found a new–and fitting–home: the Fox News network.

The New York Times reports:

Former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska has signed on as a contributor to the Fox News Channel.

The network confirmed that Ms. Palin will appear on the network’s programming on a regular basis as part of a multi-year deal. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Ms. Palin will not have her own regular program, one person familiar with the deal said, though she will host an occasional series that will run on the network from time to time.

[Emphasis mine]

So, for the record, Sarah Palin abandoned the people of Alaska–the people who elected her to represent and serve them–in order to become a talking head on America’s shoddiest news network.

I guess being Governor was too hard for Palin–perhaps she’s hoping that being a talking head will be easier (and more lucrative).

And isn’t it funny how Palin attacked Barack Obama for being a political celebrity, yet she ended up quitting her political job to become an actual celebrity.

UPDATE: An interesting to note–Mike Huckabee got his own show; Sarah Palin didn’t. I wonder why that is.

Michael Steele, Anchor (UPDATED)

Republican donors are shunning the RNC.

The reason? Chairman Michael Steele:

Some wealthy contributors are shunning the Republican National Committee and donating instead to the other GOP campaign committees or directly to candidates – in many cases because of discontent with the leadership of Michael S. Steele, the party’s national chairman.

I don’t plan to give to the Republican National Committee this cycle, and no other major donor I know is planning to either,” Christine Toretti, a Pennsylvania RNC member and a longtime major donor to the RNC and other GOP campaign committees and causes, told The Washington Times.

[…]

Mr. Steele, a former Maryland lieutenant governor, has had a contentious tenure as RNC chairman after his election a year ago, with open infighting among party officials over his leadership.

The Times first reported displeasure by RNC members, including several former party chairmen, over Mr. Steele’s acceptance of pay for speeches while holding down his full-time job as national chairman, for which he receives $223,500 a year plus unlimited expenses. To the further consternation of party elders and many rank-and-file members, he has embarked on a promotional tour for his new book, “Right Now: A 12-Step Program for Defeating the Obama Agenda.”

[Emphasis mine]

Republicans are desperately trying to keep this simmering scandal from boiling over.

Considering how much they have at stake this year, this is probably the worst time for major intraparty infighting.

The GOP spin is that their party is motivated and united, ready for major victories in November. The reality, though, is that the GOP is an  underfunded, infighting, disorganized group now being set upon by they very conservative activist they spawned.

And at the center of it all, weighing the whole shebang down even further, is Chairman Michael Steele.

UPDATED: The Michael Steele fracas threatens to boil over:

House and Senate leadership aides are furious with RNC chair Michael Steele and have angrily confronted the RNC’s press shop over their inability to keep the chair on message.

In the course of a regular daily conference call between senior Congressional communicators, House and Senate aides berated RNC staffers over Steele’s comments that the GOP would not be able to take back the House, and that even if they did, the party would not be prepared to lead.

A senior Senate aide brought up Steele’s comments, arguing that he was ruining what should be several days of glowing press for the GOP in the wake of retirement announcements from Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Chris Dodd (D-CT).

“Steele is setting us far back with his comments and it needs to stop,” the aide said, according to 2 sources who were on the call.

[Emphasis mine]

Donors are angry, Congressional aides are angry…is Steele even going to be around for the GOP’s inevitable disappointing performance in November?

Stupid Republican Tricks: Climate Change Edition

We go through this every year.

Every winter, conservatives try to present every really cold day and every snowfall as proof that climate change isn’t real.

Climate change doesn’t mean we’re no longer going to have seasons or that it isn’t going to get cold in winter. The fact that cold weather still occurs in winter doesn’t prove climate change wrong because there’s a difference between climate and weather.

NASA explains:

The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere “behaves” over relatively long periods of time.

When we talk about climate change, we talk about changes in long-term averages of daily weather.

[…]

In most places, weather can change from minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour, day-to-day, and season-to-season. Climate, however, is the average of weather over time and space.

[Emphasis mine]

Conservatives want us to believe they know better than all of the climatologists and other scientists whose research proves climate change is occurring, yet they can’t seem to grasp the basic, fundamental difference between weather and climate.

What a joke.

Whatever Happened To Self-Governance?

39 Congressional Republicans don’t believe that the people of the District of Columbia should be allowed to govern themselves:

In the filing, U.S. senators James Inhofe (Okla.) and Roger Wicker (Miss.) and 37 House Republicans align with Bishop Harry Jackson, pastor of Hope Christian Church, in asking the court to reverse a D.C. Board of Elections and Ethics decision prohibiting the same-sex marriage question to be put before voters.

[Emphasis mine]

Last month the DC City Council voted 11-2 to legalize same-sex marriage.

The Republicans want DC to have a referendum on same-sex marriage. That probably wouldn’t result in the defeat of same-sex marriage considering that polls shows more than 2/3rds of DC in favor it.

But that’s not the point–the point is that constitutional rights should not be on the ballot. If we had put segregation on the ballot 60 years ago it would have passed in every single state in which it was practiced, even though it was both egregiously unconstitutional and morally reprehensible.

Same-sex marriage is a matter of constitutional rights–it’s a matter of the 14th amendment’s equal protection under the law.  The right-wing strategy of putting same-sex marriage on the ballot is designed to undermine the idea that same-sex marriage is a constitutional–not political–issue.

And aren’t Republicans supposed to be in favor of local governance? Since when do they want the federal government telling a city government what to do? I guess Republicans only prefer small government when it suits them–then again, we all knew the GOP’s principles are all pretty much negotiable, anyway.