Next Tuesday, Massachusetts will hold a special election to select a successor to the late Ted Kennedy.
A poll by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman has Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) beating State Sen. Scott Brown (R) by 14 points.
A poll by Republican pollster Scott Rasmussen has Coakley beating Brown by 9 points.
A Boston Globe poll has Coakley beating Brown by 15 points.
And a Public Policy Polling survey has Brown leading Coakley by one point.
Now guess which poll conservatives arbitrarily decided was the accurate one. I guess that’s right-wing logic for you–if three polls show one result and one shows a completely contradictory result, go with the outlier.
PPP isn’t a bad pollster but they’re sometimes off by a lot, particularly in special elections–remember that their final poll for the NY-23 special election had Doug Hoffman beating Bill Owens by 17 points.
As we all know, Owens ended up winning that race by 2 points.
The Massachusetts contest is a special election, so it’s both volatile and hard to predict. But I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to predict that Coakley will probably win, and probably not by a very thin margin.
Then again, we all know how out-of-touch Republicans are. In fact, even if Coakley wins I bet the right will still try to spin that loss as some kind of victory for them.