Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, has announced that he will not run for his father’s former Senate seat this year.

Despite being a statewide officeholder with a famous name, the younger Biden did not poll well against presumptive GOP candidate Mike Castle–Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight rated Delaware as the 6th Senate seat most likely to change hands in November. It’s quite possible that the appearance of nepotism was dragging the younger Biden’s numbers down.

But Delaware is also a small state, and there isn’t a very deep bench of potential Democratic candidates.

So, Biden’s announcement could be similar to Dodd’s retirement–where Democrats are better off without a big name in the race–or it could be like Dorgan’s retirement–where the Democrats’ one and only chance is walking away.

We won’t know for sure until both sides pick their candidates and we see some good, reputable polls.