MA-SEN: Problematic Polling & Right-Wing Delusions (UPDATED)

In the Massachusetts Senate special election, a new Research 2000 poll shows Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) beating state Senator Scott Brown (R) by 8 points.

Let’s recap the recent polling on this race:

A poll by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman has Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) beating State Sen. Scott Brown (R) by 14 points.

A poll by Republican pollster Scott Rasmussen has Coakley beating Brown by 9 points.

A Boston Globe poll has Coakley beating Brown by 15 points.

And a Public Policy Polling survey has Brown leading Coakley by one point.

And another, more recent Rasmussen poll has Coakley leading Brown by 2 points.

But PPP has a spotty record when it comes to special election polling–their final NY-23 poll was 19 points off from the election results (more on that here).

And in regards to that Rasmussen poll, it’s awfully convenient how, right when Republicans were using that PPP poll as proof their candidate was gaining, Rasmussen put out their own poll–contrary to nearly every other survey out there–showing exactly that.

Especially when you consider that producing polls that reflect the right-wing conventional wisdom (though not always reality) seems to be Scott Rasmussen’s MO.

To recap, we have 4 polls showing Coakley comfortably ahead and 2 (problematic) polls showing her within the margin of error.

And yet, the right has decided this is proof that their candidate is going to win on Tuesday.

You know, just like how Doug Hoffman was going to win in NY-23. And how John McCain was going to win in 2008. And how the Republicans weren’t going to lose Congress in 2006.

Then again, the fact that much of the conservative movement is entirely out of touch with reality isn’t exactly news.


Of course, we all know that–just like in NY-23–even if the conservative candidate loses the right is still going to declare victory. Because in right-wing fantasy land losing means you won!

Their rationale will probably be this: Coakley didn’t win by the same margin Ted Kennedy (even though this is a special election, in January, in MA’s first open Senate election in 26 years) then Scott Brown won some kind of moral victory.

Of course, conservatives aren’t trying to win a moral victory in MA, they’re trying to win a Senate seat; a moral victory doesn’t help them break the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority.

But hey, I guess they have to come up with some kind of justification for blowing $1.3 million on an election that was hopeless on its face…