As the campaign season wears on, I’ve started to see a lot of similarities between the campaign of John McCain 2008 and John Kerry 2004.
I don’t mean to attack Kerry, but his campaign was poorly managed and his performance as a candidate was more than lackluster. In this case, there are definite parallels between Kerry and McCain–two campaign with extremely high expectations, with early indicators that the candidates won’t live up to those expectations.
Kerry was seen as a passionateless and boring speaker, more suited to long-winded tirades in the Senate than rousing speeches on the stump; similarly, McCain is also a passionateless speaker who fails to rouse crowds of even his most ardent supporters.
Second, Kerry was portrayed a flip-flopper, which wasn’t helped by his often-confusing rhetoric. Similarly, McCain has changed his position on a number of issues or has taken positions contrary to the rest of his party–McCain’s tack to the right is a recent trend, and he still garners a significant amount of skepticism among the Republican faithful. Take this piece from the Wall Street Journal, reported on AMERICAblog:
But Sen. McCain still confronts a problem both in the remainder of the nomination race, and, if he wins, in the fall: He is simply loathed by many fellow Republicans, often for the very bipartisanship and maverick streak that attracts independents. His biggest, and perhaps final, test comes Tuesday, when 21 states hold contests — most of them open only to Republican voters.
“So it is over. Finished. In November, we’ll be sending out our most liberal, least trustworthy candidate,” conservative author and talk-radio personality Michael Graham said on a conservative blog, reacting to Sen. McCain’s third primary victory, two days ago in Florida.
In addition—much like Kerry’s perceived boringness, hesitance and flip-flopping—McCain has a lot about him that’s going to cause problems down the road, like his short temper, his irreverence, and his vehement support for the Iraq war, the surge and George W. Bush.
Similarly, the Kerry campaign was strapped for cash and lagging in the polls not long before the 2004 primaries began—he won a surprise victory over Howard Dean to take first place in Iowa. Similarly, McCain won a surprise victory in New Hampshire—widely seen as Romney territory—while his campaign was completely broke:
By last November, John McCain‘s presidential campaign was broke. To survive, he offered his fundraising lists as collateral for a $3 million line of credit from a local bank. But obtaining the loan required an unusual extra step: He had to take out a special life insurance policy in case he did not survive the campaign.
[…]
“We cut a lot of staff. We cut consultants. We cut it down to a bare-bones operation,” said Carla Eudy, a senior adviser to McCain. “We lowered our overhead drastically.”
[…]
According to a week-by-week analysis of contributions and spending, the campaign was $300,000 in debt by early June. Then it slowed its spending and nearly broke even over the summer. By November, the campaign was again in debt, and it continued to lose money until McCain began drawing on the loan that month. That left him with an estimated $872,000 going into the New Hampshire primary.
This shows us that—like Kerry in ’04—McCain’s campaign is suffering from somer serious management issues, which will cause major problems later on in the campaign.
Next, Kerry had decades of Senate votes that were used against him, often either misleadingly portrayed or taken entirely out of context. Similarly, McCain has been in the Senate since 1987, and his tenure is full of controversial and ill-advised votes on a variety of issues.
McCain does have something in his past Kerry didn’t—a failed attempt to leave his party:
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was close to leaving the Republican Party in 2001, weeks before then-Sen. Jim Jeffords (Vt.) famously announced his decision to become an Independent, according to former Democratic lawmakers who say they were involved in the discussions.
In interviews with The Hill this month, former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) and ex-Rep. Tom Downey (D-N.Y.) said there were nearly two months of talks with the maverick lawmaker following an approach by John Weaver, McCain’s chief political strategist.
Democrats had contacted Jeffords and then-Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) in the early months of 2001 about switching parties, but in McCain’s case, they said, it was McCain’s top strategist who came to them.
[…]
On June 2, 2001, The Washington Post ran a front-page story with the headline “McCain is Considering Leaving GOP; Arizona Senator Might Launch a Third-Party Challenge to Bush in 2004.”
It’s clear that McCain has a lot of issues, as well as a lot of other things which could easily blow up in his face. It’s likely he’ll become the Republican nominee, but make no mistake about–McCain is being nominated by default.
Republicans aren’t voting for McCain, they’re voting against the other candidates. Republicans will vote for McCain not because they want him in the White House, but because they just don’t want a Democrat in the White House.
So, while McCain will have support, it’ll be tepid support—the GOP will vote for him, but they won’t campaign for him, won’t speak out for him, won’t give money to him or do much else but pull the lever. And, in the end, I doubt McCain will be able to pull in enough support to become America’s next President.
History is repeating itself right before our very eyes
Democrashield 