Republicans are trying to push the meme that the retirement of 10 House Democrats thus far proves there will be a GOP victory in 2010.
Their rationale is that a lot of Democratic Representatives are retiring because they know their party will lose come November.
Well, let’s go ahead and burst that bubble:
The decision by South Carolina Rep. Henry Brown to retire brings Republican retirements to 14, a number that, if it continues to rise in the coming months, could curtail the expected GOP gains in the House in November.
Republicans currently carry 14 open seats while Democrats have 10.
Whoops, turns out there are actually 4 more Republican retirements than Democratic ones.
And then there’s this:
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the key cog in helping to finance GOP campaigns, has banked less than a third as much money as its Democratic counterpart and is ending the year with barely enough money to fully finance a single House race — no less the dozens that will be in play come 2010.
The fundraising disparity between the two committees is striking: The DCCC outraised the NRCC this year by more than $18 million, according to FEC figures at the end of November. The NRCC has only $4.3 million left in its campaign account — with more than $2 million in debt — leaving it with just a pittance to fund the dozens of races it hopes to aggressively contest.
The DCCC, meanwhile, is sitting on a $15.3 million nest egg (with $2.6 million owed), steadily expanding its cash-on-hand advantage over Republicans throughout the year.
A lot of retirements and pathetic fundraising translate into a low probability of political success for the GOP.
Even if the political climate is in their favor, if Republicans don’t have the resources to be competitive then they won’t even have a shot at the improbable takeover they’re dreaming about.