GOP Poised For 2010 Comeback? (UPDATED With Fundraising Numbers)

Survey says…nope:

Poll respondents are evenly divided when asked whether they have confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country’s future, but just 19 percent express confidence in the Republicans in Congress to do so. Even among Republicans, only 40 percent express confidence in the GOP congressional leadership to make good choices.

Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983. Political independents continue to make up the largest group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call themselves Democrats.


Fifty-one percent say they would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the elections were held now, while 39 percent would vote for the Republican. Independents split 45 percent for the Democrat, 41 percent for the Republican.

But wait, there’s more:

On the issue that has been perhaps the most pronounced flash point in the national debate, 57 percent of all Americans now favor a public insurance option, while 40 percent oppose it.


Fifty-six percent of those polled back a provision mandating that all Americans buy insurance, either through their employers or on their own or through Medicare or Medicaid. That number rises to 71 percent if the government were to provide subsidies for many lower-income Americans to help them buy coverage.


Overall, 57 percent approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 40 percent disapprove.


On the economy, 50 percent approve of Obama’s efforts, while 48 percent disapprove.

The president receives better marks from all Americans for his handling of international affairs and his performance as commander in chief (57 percent approval on each). Slim majorities also approve of how he is dealing the situation with Iran and his winning of the Nobel Peace Prize. A majority disapprove of his work on the federal budget deficit.

[All emphasis mine]

To recap, just 19% of the country has confidence in the GOP. Only 20% of the country identifies with the GOP, the lowest number in 26 years. And only 39% of people say they would vote Republican in the next election

Meanwhile, 33% of the country call themselves Democrats. 51% would vote Democratic in the next election and Democrats sill get more independent voters than Republicans.

Majorities of the American people agree with President Obama’s priorities on health care reform, despite attempts by the GOP to portray reform as some kind of political albatross.

57% of the country also approves of Obama’s job performance, while majorities approve of his performance on nearly every single major issue except the deficit.

That doesn’t exactly look like a strong Republican Party poised to beat an unpopular Democratic administration. In fact, it looks like the opposite–a popular Democratic President beating a weak, anemic Republican Party.

What does this mean for 2010? Well, compare this paragraph from the poll above:

Fifty-one percent say they would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the elections were held now, while 39 percent would vote for the Republican. Independents split 45 percent for the Democrat, 41 percent for the Republican.

To this paragraph from a similar poll:

Democrats hold an advantage of 52 percent to 40 percent when voters are asked whether they plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate in their House district, a margin that didn’t narrow when the preferences of only those most likely to cast ballots were analyzed.

That second poll is from spring of 2006, just a few months before the Democrats won 31 House seats and 6 Senate seats and took the majority in both houses of Congress.

So no, that’s definitely not good news if you’re a Republican. See, while President Obama and the Democratic Congress are somewhat less popular now then they were in January, their loss hasn’t been the GOP’s gain. In fact, there is every indication that the GOP’s lurch to the right has been alienating, not winning, voters.

If the GOP can’t actually win support instead of merely stoking opposition, they’re going to get a very rude awakening from their dreams of a Republican resurgence.

UPDATE: This also does not bode well for Republicans:

Democrats Crush GOP in Fundraising

The political climate is ripe for Republican gains, the Beltway elections watchers tell us. But those contributing to the 2010 campaigns disagree.

On the House side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee more than doubled the money haul of its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, bringing in $7 million to the $3.4 million raised by the NRCC in the month of September. The cash-on-hand numbers are similarly good for the Democrats, with the D-trip holding a net $10.7 million in the bank to the NRCC’s $2.3 million.

On the Senate side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee also handily outraised its GOP competitor in September, raising $5.9 million to the $3.2 million brought in by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The DSCC also leads the NRSC in net cash-on-hand by a $7.8 million to $5.2 million margin.

In addition, new reports show that for the first time since 2004, the Democratic National Committee has outraised the Republican National Committee for a quarter, $24.2 million to $22.9 million.

[Emphasis mine]

Despite all evidence to the contrary, Republicans still tell themselves that 2010 is going to be another 1994.  Then again, the GOP hasn’t exactly been entirely in touch with reality as of late, so I shouldn’t expect anything different.