Blue America

Are the Republicans poised to make a political comeback?

No, according to Gallup, whose recent polling found that Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans in 29 states (and DC) while Republicans outnumber Democrats in just 4 states:

[click on pic for full-sized]

Analysis below the fold…

All those bright blue states represent a combined 353 electoral votes, 58 Senate seats and 295 House seats.

All those bright red states represent a combined 15 electoral votes, 8 Senate seats and 7 House seats.

But wait a minute–I thought the Republicans were supposed to have momentum! What about the tea parties and and “socialism” and “porkulus” and the health care riots? I thought all of that meant people were angry with the Democrats and are ready to punish them!

Think again :

Since Obama was inaugurated, not much has changed in the political party landscape at the state level — the Democratic Party continues to hold a solid advantage in party identification in most states and in the nation as a whole. While the size of the Democratic advantage at the national level shrunk in recent months, this has been due to an increase in independent identification rather than an increase in Republican support. That finding is echoed here given that the total number of solid and leaning Republican states remains unchanged from last year. While the Republican Party is still able to compete in elections if they enjoy greater turnout from their supporters or greater support for its candidates from independent voters, the deck is clearly stacked in the Democratic Party’s favor for now.

Sorry, guys–better luck next time, eh? Say, 2016 or 2020? 2024?

Advertisements