McCain In Retreat

John McCain is ceding ground to Barack Obama and moving his resources into states that Bush won easily in 2004.


* McCain has dramatically slashed ad spending in Wisconsin, running 256 spots this past Monday, down from 352 the previous Monday.

* McCain has scaled back spending in New Hampshire, running 40 spots this past Monday, down from 55 the previous week.

* McCain has cut ad spending in Pennsylvania, running 284 spots this past Monday, down from 336 the previous week.

* McCain has slashed spending in Colorado, running 195 spots this past Monday, down from 243 the previous week.

And by contrast…

* McCain has increased his spending in Florida, a battleground that McCain was supposed to win without too much trouble, running 339 spots this past Monday, versus 311 the previous week.

* McCain has boosted his spending in Virginia, long reliably red but trending blue, running 182 spots this past Monday, up from 169 the previous week.

[Emphasis mine]

And now another front has opened up in Montana:

In a possible new sign that the electoral map is swinging further to Barack Obama, a new Montana State University poll gives him a narrow lead in Montana, a state that has voted Dem only twice in the last 50 years.

Just for reference:

  • In 2004, Kerry won Wisconsin by 0.38%
  • In 2004, Kerry won New Hampshire by 1.37%
  • In 2004, Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.5%
  • In 2004, Bush won Colorado by 4.67%
  • In 2004, Bush won Florida by 5.01%
  • In 2004, Bush won Virginia by 8.20%
  • In 2004, Bush won Montana by 20.51%

Bush only won by a single state in 2004–McCain can’t afford to both retreat from blue states and hemorrhage red states.

If he has to shore up his standing in places like Virginia and Montana, McCain won’t be able to stop the bleeding and reverse his fortunes in time for the election.


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